Marvell Technology Inc.

Marvell is a fabless designer of specialized semiconductors focusing on accelerated computing solutions serving data center, enterprise networking, carrier infrastructure, and automotive markets; in FY25 data center accounted for over 70% of revenue compared to approximately 40% in recent years. Marvell’s custom compute ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), ethernet switches, and interconnect portfolio have been driving growth.

 

Ests:     2Q26   3Q26   FY26    FY27

Revs    2.01B   2.1B     8.24b   9.8bn

EPS      .67       .72       2.80     3.57

gr                                 +78%   +27%

 

P=77.23, TTM EPS=2.33, P/E=33X, FY26 P/E=28X

3.2bn net debt but doesn’t include 2.5bn from divested automotive ethernet division (approx. 250m Revs), D/C=20%

 

2Q26 .67 vs .30 est .67

  • Aug 28, 2025, P=77.23, TTM EPS=2.33, P/E=33X, FY26 P/E=28X

  • Revs +57.6% to 2.006bn (est 2.01bn), GM 59.4% vs 61.9%, OM 34.8% vs 26.1%, OCF 461.6m vs 306.4m, repurchased 200m in stock vs 175m

  • Data Center +69% to 1.49bn, Enterprise +28% to 193.6m, Carrier +71% to 130.1m, Consumer +30% to 115.9m, Auto/Indu -0.3% to 76m

  • 3Q Outlook: Revs +36% to 2.06bn +/- 5% (+40% to 2.12bn without divestment, est 2.1bn), GM 59.5-60%, EPS +72% to .74 +/- .05 (est .72), reflects divestment of Automotive Ethernet division which would have added 60m to guidance. 4Q ests are Revs 2.21bn, EPS 0.78

  • 3Q q/q expect data center flat with ectro-optics +DD offsetting lower custom due to buildout/shipment timing but 4Q “substantially stronger”, carrier and enterprise +30%, consumer down LSD,

  • Won additional custom XPU sockets since June event (“very meaningful, think billions in design wins”)

  • AI and cloud >90% of data center, Custom and electro-optics >75% of Data Center

Mid-Quarter Update June 17, 2025 - Custom AI Event

  • Targeting 20% market share of 2028 TAM of 94bn (+25% from 75bn last year) implies 19bn revenue potential. Highlighted vs last year, compute +30%, interconnect +37%

  • 1T capex by 2028 is 20% CAGR from 2025 est 593bn, 94bn of that 1T into Data Center and 55bn into compute of which 40bn into custom XPU (47% CAGR) and 14.6bn custom XPU attach (90% CAGR)

  • With top 4 hyperscalers, disclosed 3 custom XPU sockets (2 in prodn, 1 in development) and 9 custom XPU attach sockets, and with emerging hyperscalers 2 custom XPU sockets and 4 custom XPU attach sockets (total 18 gives them line of sight to their market share targets)

  • Really emphasized the time and collaboration with customers to develop a solution, incorporating customer IP, not just like buying something off the shelf for quick drop in.

 

1Q26 .62 vs .24 est .61

  • May 29, 20025, P=63.73, TTM EPS=1.95, P/E=33X, FY26 P/E=23X

  • Revs +63.3% to 1.895bn (est 1.88bn), +4.3% q/q, GM 59.8% vs 62.4%, OM 34.2% vs 23.3%

  • OCF 332.9m vs 324.5m, repurchased 340m in stock

  • Data center +76.5% to 1.44bn (+5.5% q/q) to 76% of revs, Enterprise +16%, Carrier +93%, Consumer +50%, Auto -2%. Consumer and auto down q/q but rest up.

  • Selling Automotive Ethernet business (approx. 250m Revs) for 2.5bn to Infineon, expect closing in CY25.

  • Outlook: 2Q Revs +57% to 2bn +/- 5% (est 1.99bn), GM 50-51%, EPS .67 +/- .05 (est .67)

  • Expect enterprise and carrier +MSD q/q, consumer +50% q/q, auto and indu flat, data center slightly faster than in 1Q?

  • Re their large XPU hyperscaler customer, “fully engaged with this customer on the follow-on generation… expect to start production in calendar 2026. At the same time our architecture team is working with the customer to support the definition of the generation after that… expect to grow next year, fiscal 2027, and beyond”

  • Re 2nd hyperscaler, joint development progressing well, already engaged for next gen.  

  • Customers have relationships with many partners, “it’s certainly possible and likely that customers and our customer may be pursuing multiple paths to meet their requirements”

4Q25 .60 vs .46, est .59 FY25EPS 1.57 vs 1.51

  • Mar 5, 2025, P=88.33, P/E=56X, FY26 P/E=32x

  • Revs +27% to 1.82bn, +20% q/q, GM 60.1% vs 63.9%, OM 33.7% vs 33.8%

  • DC 1.37bn vs 0.77bn, 1.1bn in 3Q

  • AI now more than half data center revs

  • Ended FY25 substantially above 1.5b AI target, expect to very significantly exceed 2.5bn FY26 target

  •  CY28 Data center TAM 75bn, 40bn being custom silicon, 20% share driving 8bn (was 4bn in FY25)

  • Carrier and enterprise recovering

  • 1Q26 Outlook: Revs 1.875 +/- 5%, est 1.865 (+3% q/q, +61% y/y), EPS .61 +/- .05, est .60

3Q25 .43 vs .41

2Q25 .30 vs .33

1Q25 .24 vs .31

FY24 EPS 1.52 vs 2.13

FY23 EPS 2.13 vs 1.48

FY22 EPS 1.48 vs .92 (reported 1.57 vs .92 but using average share count following dilution)