Marvell Technology Inc.

Marvell is a fabless designer of specialized semiconductors focusing on accelerated computing solutions serving data center, enterprise networking, carrier infrastructure, and automotive markets; in FY25 data center accounted for over 70% of revenue compared to approximately 40% in recent years. Marvell’s custom compute ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), ethernet switches, and interconnect portfolio have been driving growth.

 

Ests:     3Q26   4Q26   FY26    FY27

Revs    2.07B   2.17B   8.14b   9.48bn

EPS      .74       .77       2.80     3.38

gr                                 +78%   +21%

 

P=92.89, TTM EPS=2.68, P/E=35X, FY26 P/E=27X, 1.75bn net debt, D/C=11%

 

3Q26 .76 vs .43, est .74 up from .72

  • Dec 2, 2025, P=92.89, TTM EPS=2.68, P/E=35X, FY27 P/E=27X

  • Revs +36.8% to 2.075bn (ex divestment +41% y/y +6% q/q, est 2.07), GM 59.7% vs 60.5%, OM 36.3% vs 29.7%, OCF 582.3m vs 536.3m, repurchased 1.3bn in stock vs 200m

  • Data center +37.9% to 1.517bn, Enterprise +57.2% to 237.2m, Carrier +98.1% to 167.8m, Consumer +20.8% to 116.6m, Auto 35m

  • 4Q Outlook: Revs +21% to 2.2bn (est 2.17), GM 58.5-59.5%, EPS +32% to .79 +/- .05 (est .77), factors Data Center +HSD q/q, +20% y/y, steep seasonal decline in consumer

  • FY27 Outlook even better than discussed during fireside chat in Sept, Data Center at least +25% with custom at least +20% (2H growth >1H), comms and other +10%, large customer transition to next gen XPU with POs in place, do not expect any air pockets in custom silicon, several high-volume custom programs in development for FY28+,  

  • Puts FY27 Revs at least +21% to 9.9bn (est 9.48bn) with q/q growth every quarter, with OpEx growth roughly half of rev growth, EPS could be >$4 (est 3.38, FY28 est 4.19) even after Celestial OpEx and dilution, FY28 +30% (est 11.2bn) with custom doubling from FY27

  • Won additional XPU sockets adding more than 10% of the 75bn rev opportunity

  • Acquiring Celestial AI (as rumoured), for 3.25bn (1bn cash, 27.2m shares or 3% dilution, potential earnout of additional 27.2m shares) “a pioneer of a disruptive photonic fabric technology platform purpose-built for scale-up optical interconnect”

  • Expects annualized runrate revs 500m by 4Q28, doubling to 1bn runrate by 4Q29. Earnout of 27.2m shares payable 1/3 if by 4Q29 cumulative revs 500m, full earnout if 4Q29 cumulative revs >2bn, additional warrant agreement with Amazon for 1m shares with vesting tied to Amazon purchases of photonic fabric, AWS comment included on Celestial AI announcement.

2Q26 .67 vs .30 est .67

  • Aug 28, 2025, P=77.23, TTM EPS=2.33, P/E=33X, FY26 P/E=28X

  • Revs +57.6% to 2.006bn (est 2.01bn), GM 59.4% vs 61.9%, OM 34.8% vs 26.1%, OCF 461.6m vs 306.4m, repurchased 200m in stock vs 175m

  • Data Center +69% to 1.49bn, Enterprise +28% to 193.6m, Carrier +71% to 130.1m, Consumer +30% to 115.9m, Auto/Indu -0.3% to 76m

  • 3Q Outlook: Revs +36% to 2.06bn +/- 5% (+40% to 2.12bn without divestment, est 2.1bn), GM 59.5-60%, EPS +72% to .74 +/- .05 (est .72), reflects divestment of Automotive Ethernet division which would have added 60m to guidance. 4Q ests are Revs 2.21bn, EPS 0.78

  • 3Q q/q expect data center flat with ectro-optics +DD offsetting lower custom due to buildout/shipment timing but 4Q “substantially stronger”, carrier and enterprise +30%, consumer down LSD,

  • Won additional custom XPU sockets since June event (“very meaningful, think billions in design wins”)

  • AI and cloud >90% of data center, Custom and electro-optics >75% of Data Center

Mid-Quarter Update June 17, 2025 - Custom AI Event

  • Targeting 20% market share of 2028 TAM of 94bn (+25% from 75bn last year) implies 19bn revenue potential. Highlighted vs last year, compute +30%, interconnect +37%

  • 1T capex by 2028 is 20% CAGR from 2025 est 593bn, 94bn of that 1T into Data Center and 55bn into compute of which 40bn into custom XPU (47% CAGR) and 14.6bn custom XPU attach (90% CAGR)

  • With top 4 hyperscalers, disclosed 3 custom XPU sockets (2 in prodn, 1 in development) and 9 custom XPU attach sockets, and with emerging hyperscalers 2 custom XPU sockets and 4 custom XPU attach sockets (total 18 gives them line of sight to their market share targets)

  • Really emphasized the time and collaboration with customers to develop a solution, incorporating customer IP, not just like buying something off the shelf for quick drop in.

 

1Q26 .62 vs .24 est .61

  • May 29, 20025, P=63.73, TTM EPS=1.95, P/E=33X, FY26 P/E=23X

  • Revs +63.3% to 1.895bn (est 1.88bn), +4.3% q/q, GM 59.8% vs 62.4%, OM 34.2% vs 23.3%

  • OCF 332.9m vs 324.5m, repurchased 340m in stock

  • Data center +76.5% to 1.44bn (+5.5% q/q) to 76% of revs, Enterprise +16%, Carrier +93%, Consumer +50%, Auto -2%. Consumer and auto down q/q but rest up.

  • Selling Automotive Ethernet business (approx. 250m Revs) for 2.5bn to Infineon, expect closing in CY25.

  • Outlook: 2Q Revs +57% to 2bn +/- 5% (est 1.99bn), GM 50-51%, EPS .67 +/- .05 (est .67)

  • Expect enterprise and carrier +MSD q/q, consumer +50% q/q, auto and indu flat, data center slightly faster than in 1Q?

  • Re their large XPU hyperscaler customer, “fully engaged with this customer on the follow-on generation… expect to start production in calendar 2026. At the same time our architecture team is working with the customer to support the definition of the generation after that… expect to grow next year, fiscal 2027, and beyond”

  • Re 2nd hyperscaler, joint development progressing well, already engaged for next gen.  

  • Customers have relationships with many partners, “it’s certainly possible and likely that customers and our customer may be pursuing multiple paths to meet their requirements”

4Q25 .60 vs .46, est .59 FY25EPS 1.57 vs 1.51

  • Mar 5, 2025, P=88.33, P/E=56X, FY26 P/E=32x

  • Revs +27% to 1.82bn, +20% q/q, GM 60.1% vs 63.9%, OM 33.7% vs 33.8%

  • DC 1.37bn vs 0.77bn, 1.1bn in 3Q

  • AI now more than half data center revs

  • Ended FY25 substantially above 1.5b AI target, expect to very significantly exceed 2.5bn FY26 target

  •  CY28 Data center TAM 75bn, 40bn being custom silicon, 20% share driving 8bn (was 4bn in FY25)

  • Carrier and enterprise recovering

  • 1Q26 Outlook: Revs 1.875 +/- 5%, est 1.865 (+3% q/q, +61% y/y), EPS .61 +/- .05, est .60

3Q25 .43 vs .41

2Q25 .30 vs .33

1Q25 .24 vs .31

FY24 EPS 1.52 vs 2.13

FY23 EPS 2.13 vs 1.48

FY22 EPS 1.48 vs .92 (reported 1.57 vs .92 but using average share count following dilution)